Insights

There is no one fact which usefully informs us right now. Rather we have a jig-saw, and the pieces have been gradually emerging over the last couple of years. The picture is becoming clearer, and the latest shape was inflation volatility, which sounds dry but is very informative for investors. What works for investors in this environment, and should do so for years ahead, is reasonably clear from historical precedents in financial markets. But we still need to navigate some rocks in the shorter term.

From November, US financial markets and beyond began dancing to the tune of the US Federal Reserve, who hinted that collapsing inflation would allow interest rates to be cut sharply and soon.  With the bleary dawn of 2024 the rhythm became more a stagger and a wobble, with bursts of exuberance, almost exclusively in technology.  Let’s look at the detail.